Correction: Although listed as a rookie by several sources, including fangraphs.com, Alexi Ogando is not eligible for the award because the service time he accrued in 2010. As a result, all references to him as a contender for the award are invalid, which makes Nova’s candidacy all the more stronger.
For much of the season, most of the award-related speculation surrounding the Yankees has centered upon CC Sabathia’s pursuit of a second Cy Young and Curtis Granderson’s candidacy for MVP. However, without much fanfare, Ivan Nova has emerged as a dark horse candidate in the Rookie of the Year race.
Will Ivan Nova be tipping his cap when the ROY award is announced? (Photo: NY Daily News)
It shouldn’t be a surprise that Nova’s 14-4 season has gone relatively unnoticed. After all, back in July, he was demoted to the minors in favor of two struggling pitchers (AJ Burnett and Phil Hughes), so if the Yankees’ brass was slow to realize his contribution, it’s easy to why everyelse has been. Nonetheless, since returning from his stint in triple-A, the 24-year old right hander has won six consecutive victories (seven including a start before his demotion, besting Vic Raschi’s single-season franchise rookie record) to go along with a 3.60 ERA. As a result, Nova has emerged as the Yankees’ most reliable starter during a turbulent August that has seen the rest of the rotation struggle significantly.
Although Nova’s rookie-leading 14 wins are sure to garner votes from the more traditional voting bloc, his candidacy remains an uphill climb. Not only does he rank fourth in average WAR among AL rookie pitchers, but three position players also rate ahead. Granted, most of the beat writers casting a ballot do not necessarily consult sabermetrics, but the combination of underlying statistics and name value still make the rest of the field formidable competition. In particular, Mark Trumbo’s 23 HRs and 71 RBIs could counter the “face value” of Nova’s 14 wins, while the more heralded Desmond Jennings, Michael Pineda and Jeremy Hellickson could have a built-in recognition advantage.
Top-10 Rookies, Ranked by Average WAR (Position Player and Pitchers)
| Position Player | Team | PO | fWAR | bWAR | aWAR | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| Desmond Jennings | TBR | LF | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 153 | 0.354 | 0.440 | 0.646 |
| Dustin Ackley | SEA | 2B | 2.2 | 2 | 2.1 | 256 | 0.282 | 0.359 | 0.445 |
| Mark Trumbo | LAA | 1B | 2 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 472 | 0.256 | 0.294 | 0.475 |
| Josh Reddick | BOS | RF | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 211 | 0.282 | 0.332 | 0.471 |
| Casper Wells | SEA | OF | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 206 | 0.258 | 0.327 | 0.473 |
| Brett Lawrie | TOR | 3B | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 82 | 0.338 | 0.378 | 0.688 |
| Mike Carp | SEA | 1B | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 194 | 0.292 | 0.351 | 0.472 |
| Ben Revere | MIN | CF | 1.6 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 361 | 0.255 | 0.301 | 0.294 |
| Jemile Weeks | OAK | 2B | 1.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 314 | 0.295 | 0.330 | 0.408 |
| J.P. Arencibia | TOR | C | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 393 | 0.212 | 0.275 | 0.437 |
| Pitcher | Team | PO | fWAR | bWAR | aWAR | IP | W | L | ERA |
| Alexi Ogando | TEX | SP | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 151.1 | 12 | 6 | 3.57 |
| Michael Pineda | SEA | SP | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 153 | 9 | 8 | 3.71 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | TBR | SP | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 149.1 | 11 | 9 | 3.01 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | SP | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 131.2 | 14 | 4 | 3.96 |
| Jordan Walden* | LAA | RP | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 50 | 4 | 3 | 2.70 |
| Greg Holland | KCR | RP | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 49.1 | 3 | 1 | 1.82 |
| Zach Britton | BAL | SP | 2.1 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 122 | 8 | 9 | 4.28 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | RP | 1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 58.2 | 2 | 1 | 2.61 |
| Vinnie Pestano | CLE | RP | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 51.2 | 1 | 1 | 2.44 |
| Aaron Crow | KCR | RP | 0.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 56.2 | 3 | 3 | 2.38 |
*Jordan Walden currently has 26 saves.
Note: AvgWAR = (bWAR + fWAR)/2
Source: Baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com
