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Archive for September 30th, 2011

In 2010, the Captain’s Blog was a veritable crystal ball when it came to predicting the standings, at least when compared to a universe of experts and projection systems. How’d I do this season? Well, as John Sterling might say, you can’t predict baseball.

2011 Captain’s Blog Predictions Compared to Final Standings

Note: Positive number indicates forecast was above actual total. Negative number indicates forecast was below actual total.

One season after averaging a 6.4-win divergence per team, my predictions deviated from the actual by 8.4 wins. In addition, the combination of exact predictions and “near misses” (defined as being within five wins of the actual total) plummeted all the way from 20 to 12. Meanwhile, projections that were “off the mark” (defined as a prediction 10 games or more from the actual total) increased from eight to 12. What’s more, the magnitude of those significant misses also increased. Whereas in 2010 my worst prediction was a 20-win divergence from the Padres’ final total, this year, two teams digressed from my forecast by at least 24 wins. Maybe I shouldn’t be so hard on ESPN?

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