Rage Against the Machine; Anger Toward Pujols Familiar Territory for Arod

Albert Pujols was supposed to be a Cardinal for life.

Albert Pujols’ decision to take his talents to Southern California has inspired great joy among Angels’ fans and, not surprisingly, a considerable amount of vitriol from those who root for the Cardinals. Phony, trader, liar, mercenary, and fraud have all been used on twitter and talk radio to describe Pujols because he opted for a mega 10-year deal worth $254 million (with $30 million in extra incentives) over a hometown discount. Apparently, charity begins in St. Louis.

Although it’s understandable why Cardinals’ fans might feel betrayed, such sentiment is both incredibly naïve and logically absurd. According to fangraphs.com, Pujols has provided $194 million worth of performance in excess of the $104 million the Cardinals have paid him since 2002 (if 2001 was included, that figure would be even higher). In other words, the Cardinals already got their discount. What’s more, not one, but reportedly three different teams offered Pujols a better deal than the Cardinals, so it sure seems as if it was the team, and not the player, that had an unfair sense of his worth.

Albert Pujols’ Salary vs. Value, 2002-2011
 Source: fangraphs (value) and baseball-reference.com (salary)

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Yanks Win Posting for Japanese SS; Could Signal Future Moves

Nakajima lines a run-scoring single during the final game of the 2009 WBC, which was won by Japan. (Photo: Getty Images)

Considered along side the other big headlines being made at the Winter Meetings, the Yankees winning bid for the rights to Japanese shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima doesn’t seem like a big deal. However, it could signal the beginning of a new strategy designed to circumvent some of the onerous restrictions triggered by the new CBA as well as mitigate some of the difficulty in building a bench behind a strong starting lineup.

In 10 seasons with the Saitama Seibu Lions of Japan’s Pacific League, Nakajima posted a line of .302/.369/.475 in over 4,500 plate appearances. According to Patrick Newman, who hosts a website dedicated to Japanese baseball, he is a plus defender with a strong enough arm to play all three infield positions. Although statistics and scouting reports about Japanese players should be taken with a grain of salt, all signs seem to suggest he has the potential to be a solid utility infielder.

Hiroyuki Nakajima’s Career Statistics

Source: Nippon Professional Baseball League Official Website

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Is There Enough Room for Big Papi in the Bronx?

For the last nine seasons, David Ortiz has been one of the most prolific hitters in baseball and the rock of the Boston Red Sox’ lineup. However, there hasn’t been much love for Big Papi on the free agent market. According to recent reports, the DH’s options seem limited to accepting arbitration or signing a discounted two-year deal with the Red Sox. If that really is the case, the Yankees should make him an offer he can’t refuse.

Brian Cashman has correctly identified pitching as the Yankees’ top priority. However, in the absence of attractive starting pitching on the market (at least not at a reasonable price), maybe that isn’t the best approach? After all, an alternative to preventing runs is scoring them, and adding Ortiz would certainly help the Yankees do just that.

With the exception of Don Baylor from 1983 to 1986, the Yankees have rarely had a full-time DH. Jorge Posada’s 90 games as a DH last year is surpassed by only seven other Yankees and ranks as the third highest total since 1991. So, if the team signed Ortiz, it would represent a philosophical reversal, especially for Joe Girardi, who has grown fond of using the DH as a “half day off” for his aging veterans.

Ironically, the man most likely to fill the DH slot for the Yankees in 2012 is 22-year old Jesus Montero. The most sensible objection to signing Ortiz is the negative impact it would have Montero’s playing time, but even that could be spun into a positive. Instead of settling on the rookie as a DH, the presence of Ortiz could force the Yankees to develop him more as a catcher, which, in the long run, would pay greater dividends.

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It Had To Be Arod: The Stigma of a Series-Ending Out

As Alex Rodriguez’ walked back to the dugout after striking out to end the 2011 ALDS, you could practically see the headlines writing themselves. Not surprisingly, the New York tabloids didn’t disappoint when it came to assigning a disproportionate amount of blame to Rodriguez, but unfortunately, the “you just knew it had to be Arod” sentiment has also proven to be quite popular with Yankees’ fans.

It had to be Arod? Alex Rodriguez walks away dejectedly after making the last out in the 2011 ALDS (Photo: AP).

At this point, it makes little sense to defend Arod’s performance in the clutch. Regardless of evidence to the contrary, those pre-disposed to dislike Rodriquez will dismiss it just because. Similarly, it seems futile to point out that Curtis Granderson’s and Robinson Cano’s outs, which preceded Arod’s, actually had a bigger impact on the Yankees’ chances of winning game five. Even though the first two outs didn’t offer the lasting impression of a sullen, $30 million man walking slowly from the plate as the Tigers charged the field, the fact remains that three Yankees, not one, went down in the final frame.

Based on the comments, conversation, and articles that have followed Rodriguez’ final out, one might get the impression that Arod is the only Yankees’ player to ever make the last out of a postseason series. Apparently, before being saddled with the baggage of a three-time MVP, the Yankees always won in October? In order to dispel that myth, listed below is the last out of every Yankees’ postseason series defeat.

Final Batted Outs in Yankees’ Postseason History (click to enlarge)

Note: Yankees suffered walk-offs in 1960, 1995 and 2001. Babe Ruth was caught stealing to end the 1926 World Series.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

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Better to Be Lucky? A Look at the Yankees’ Best and Worst Games by Individual Offensive WPA

After falling behind 6-0 to the Oakland Athletics in last night’s game, the Yankees mounted a furious comeback attempt that literally just fell short when Nick Swisher’s bid for a walk-off grand slam landed in Coco Crisp’s glove, just inches from the center field wall.

As is often the case when losing by a slim margin, there are several at bats, plays, and managerial decisions (bunting with one of the games’ hottest hitters, for example) that can be second guessed, but perhaps no one will be kicking themselves more than Swisher and Mark Teixeira. Not only did the two Yankees’ switch hitters fail to deliver with the bases loaded in the ninth inning, but the duo combined to leave 11 runners stranded.

If Swisher’s fly ball had traveled a couple of more feet, he would have been hailed as a hero. Instead, he wound up producing the lowest WPA by a Yankee batter this season. At least Swisher hit the ball hard (although the wisdom of swinging 2-0 against a wild pitcher could be questioned). After popping up to third base, Teixeira had no such consolation. Thanks to his ninth inning out, which capped an 0-5 night, the Yankees’ first baseman also cracked the top-10 lowest WPA games by a member of the offense.

Top-10 Lowest and Highest WPA Games by a Yankees’ Batter, 2011 (click to enlarge)

Note: Based on available data.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

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Taking a Knee: Injury to Arod Leaves Yankees’ Lineup Disjointed

Over at least the past three weeks, Alex Rodriguez has been playing with what was termed a “sore knee”. Since first mention of the diagnosis during the Yankees June series at Wrigley Field, Arod continued to get on base and play gold glove caliber defense. However, as has often been the case during his career, much of the focus was on what he hadn’t been able to do: hit homeruns.

Pain in Arod's knee could have a crippling effect on the Yankees' lineup.

It now seems obvious that Arod’s inability to drive the ball over the wall was the result of playing on an injured knee. Now, the question becomes did his sore knee originate as a slight meniscus tear, or did one develop after three weeks of playing with an injury that could have been alleviated with a few days of rest? 

This isn’t the first time the Yankees might have paid a heavy price for allowing a star to play through an injury. Back in late May, Joba Chamberlain complained of general soreness, but he was allowed to continue pitching through the pain. In fact, on June 5, he threw an almost career-high number of pitches in a relief outing against the Angels. Shortly thereafter, Chamberlain was sent for an MRI, which discovered a ligament tear that resulted in season-ending Tommy John surgery.

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Circuit Breakers: A Look at the Yankees’ Longest Homerless Streaks

Jorge Posada’s sixth inning home run in the first game of today’s day/night doubleheader was his seventh of the season, but first since April 24. The two-run blast, which gave the Yankees a 4-2 lead, also ended the longest homerless streak in Posada’s career. The 38-game drought was one day longer than a previous power outage that lasted between the 2002 and 2003 seasons.

Power Outages Among Yankees’ Regulars

Player	Tm	Strk Start	End	G	AB	BA	OBP	SLG
Brett Gardner	NYY	7/5/2010	4/19/2011	84	273	0.212	0.337	0.297
Derek Jeter	NYY	5/10/1997	8/6/1997	75	311	0.289	0.359	0.357
Russell Martin	LAD	9/27/2008	6/19/2009	62	222	0.239	0.350	0.279
Robinson Cano	NYY	5/9/2008	6/24/2008	41	153	0.288	0.319	0.366
Jorge Posada	NYY	4/24/2011	6/19/2011	38	124	0.250	0.329	0.323
Nick Swisher	OAK	4/15/2005	6/15/2005	33	117	0.222	0.300	0.274
Alex Rodriguez	SEA	7/8/1994	6/11/1995	32	101	0.228	0.248	0.257
Curtis Granderson	DET	6/24/2006	7/28/2006	27	105	0.276	0.333	0.324
Mark Teixeira	NYY	6/13/2009	7/8/2009	23	92	0.261	0.370	0.326

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Posada’s career-high homerless streaks ranks in the middle of the pack when compared to similar stretches endured by the other regulars in the Yankees’ lineup. Not surprisingly, the longest streak without a homer belongs to Brett Gardner, while the shortest span between home runs is enjoyed by Mark Teixeira. However, it is interesting to note that regardless of each hitter’s profile, their home run drought was also accompanied by a more pervasive slump.

Although Posada has already shown signs that his season-long doldrums are in the past (he was hitting .432/.450/.514 in his previous 40 plate appearances entering today’s action), perhaps this afternoon’s homerun is the final confirmation? The Yankees could definitely use more power from the DH slot, and if he is anywhere near his old self, Posada is more than capable of supplying it.

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Handy Men: Arod and Granderson Have an About Face Against Lefties

(In addition to appearing at The Captain’s Blog, this post is also being syndicated at TheYankeeAnalysts.)

By roughing up Brett Anderson in last night’s 10-3 victory over the Athletics, the Yankees improved their record against lefthanders to 11-6, the fourth best mark in baseball. In addition, the Yankees exited the game with the two batters who have the most RBIs against southpaws: Curtis Granderson (19) and Robinson Cano (18).

Have mechanical adjustments turned Granderson into a lefthander’s worst nightmare (Photo: NY Post)?

No one should be surprised to see Cano among the games most effective hitters against left-handed pitching. Over his career, the Yankees’ lefty swinging second baseman has had considerable success facing hurlers who throw from the port side. Since 2007, Cano’s wOBA against lefties has been .370, including a rate of at least .349 in every season over that span.

Curtis Granderson, however, is another story. When the Yankees acquired him from the Tigers before the 2010 season, the biggest knock on Granderson was his inability to hit lefties. In fact, many suggested that the weakness would eventually render him a platoon player. After a difficult first few months in pinstripes, it looked as if that prediction would come true, but following a much heralded tutorial with hitting coach Kevin Long, Granderson completely changed his profile as a hitter.

Not only does Granderson lead the majors in RBIs off left-handed pitching, he is also tops with nine home runs and third in wOBA with an astounding rate of .505. What’s more, he hasn’t exactly been picking on the weaker members of the herd. Counted among Granderson’s long ball victims are Jon Lester, David Price and Anderson, three of the best lefties in the American League.

Major League Leaders Against Lefthanders, Ranked by wOBA

Name	Team	wOBA	PA	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG
Chris Iannetta	Rockies	0.565	45	6	13	0.333	0.467	0.917
Jay Bruce	Reds	0.545	47	5	16	0.381	0.435	0.857
Curtis Granderson	Yankees	0.505	69	9	19	0.323	0.373	0.823
Howie Kendrick	Angels	0.503	66	5	10	0.364	0.462	0.727
Jose Bautista	Blue Jays	0.503	45	4	7	0.333	0.467	0.750
Mike Napoli	Rangers	0.495	55	5	15	0.302	0.455	0.721
Hanley Ramirez	Marlins	0.490	43	2	5	0.378	0.465	0.676
Alfonso Soriano	Cubs	0.490	49	4	9	0.391	0.429	0.717
Michael Young	Rangers	0.489	64	1	13	0.431	0.484	0.655
Jed Lowrie	Red Sox	0.485	59	3	16	0.429	0.441	0.696

Source: fangraphs.com

Considering the Yankees have two lefthanders who have feasted on pitchers throwing from the same side, one might expect the team’s overall performance against southpaws to be off the charts. However, that’s not the case. Although the team’s wOBA of .365 against lefthanders is very impressive, it isn’t an extraordinary figure. In fact, the Yankees are not even close to the rate posted by the Cardinals, who lead the league with a wOBA of .388 against lefties.

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The Rivalry Strikes Back: A Historical Look at Yankees vs. Red Sox

(In addition to appearing at The Captain’s Blog, this post is also being syndicated at TheYankeeAnalysts.)

Much to the chagrin of the rest of the baseball world, this weekend brings the latest installment of the epic battle between the Yankees Universe and Red Sox Nation. 

Over the next 72 hours, FOX, ESPN, and local sports networks in both regions will inundate their audiences with coverage of a rivalry that has  taken on a life of its own. Much like European soccer powerhouses interrupt their regular season schedules to play highly anticipated international tournament games, when the Yankees and Red Sox meet, the events seem to transcend the sport. 

Like it or not, when the Yankees and Red Sox play, the games generate great interest. Fueling that passion has been the success enjoyed by both teams over the last decade. However, the rich history between the two teams is also a factor. Even though the Rays have established themselves on equal footing with both behemoths, their limited history, and even more limited fan base, hasn’t yet kindled the intensity that exists between Boston and New York.

Although it often gets swallowed up in hype, the fact of the matter is the rivalry has been highly competitive over the last decade (and, as noted below, the last 45 years). Not since 2001, when the Yankees won 13 of 18, has one team dominated a season series. Over the subsequent 10 years (including the playoffs and the three games played so far this year), the outcomes have practically been the split down the middle, with the Yankees maintaining a small 94-90 advantage. With each team being a perennial pennant contender, the games have taken on a heightened significance, which undoubtedly has contributed to the intensity on each side.

History of the Rivalry, 1901-1911

 

Note: Blue in the chart above represents years when the Yankees won more than 50% of the season series. Red represents when the Red Sox won more than 50%. When the season series was split, a gray area is visible.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

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Anatomy of a Slump: Too Many Goats and Not Enough Heroes

When the Yankees left Baltimore on Easter Sunday, the team was riding a three-game winning streak into what was shaping up to be one of the weakest stretches on the schedule. At the time, the offense was averaging a whopping six runs per game and the starting rotation was rounding into form, so it seemed like the Yankees were a sure bet to build upon their five game loss column lead over the Red Sox and Rays.

NY Daily News

Unfortunately, just when it looked as if the Yankees were ready to take off, their offense went south. In the 16 games played since April 24, the Bronx Bombers have averaged only 4.2 runs, and even that amount is inflated. Excluding two games in which they scored 12 runs, the Yankees have barely scored more than three runs per contest.

At the beginning of the year, the offense was expected to carry the team, but instead, the pitchers have shouldered the burden. As the offense has sputtered, the pitching staff has risen to the occasion by limiting the opposition to only 55 runs. Because of their stinginess, the Yankees have managed to eke out a .500 record during this stretch. However, by losing half those games, the Yankees have squandered a chance to take advantage of a soft spot in the schedule.

To be fair, the Yankees’ offense really hasn’t been that bad over the past two weeks. In fact, statistically speaking, it’s actually been pretty good. Over the last 14 days, the Bronx Bombers are second in all of baseball with a wOBA of .351 and first with an OBP of .363. In other words, the Yankees have not suffered from a lack of opportunities to score; they just haven’t been able to capitalize on them.

Yankees Offensive Performance, April 28 to May 11

Name	PA	HR	R	RBI	BABIP	OBP	SLG	wOBA	WPA
Gustavo Molina	1	0	0	0	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.283	0.00
Brett Gardner	47	1	9	3	0.500	0.578	0.618	0.511	0.38
Eduardo Nunez	16	0	3	2	0.462	0.438	0.533	0.477	-0.12
Curtis Granderson	58	5	11	13	0.300	0.397	0.646	0.439	0.60
Mark Teixeira	53	3	6	5	0.250	0.415	0.558	0.427	-0.20
Robinson Cano	49	2	6	6	0.294	0.347	0.465	0.362	-0.08
Eric Chavez	13	0	1	3	0.222	0.385	0.400	0.327	0.20
Derek Jeter	52	2	6	5	0.308	0.308	0.429	0.324	-0.09
Nick Swisher	51	2	6	6	0.276	0.353	0.395	0.324	-0.06
Francisco Cervelli	11	1	2	5	0.143	0.200	0.500	0.302	0.01
Russell Martin	41	0	3	4	0.231	0.341	0.242	0.286	0.02
Jorge Posada	48	0	4	4	0.267	0.333	0.250	0.271	-0.06
Alex Rodriguez	51	0	5	4	0.243	0.235	0.208	0.208	-0.76
Andruw Jones	14	0	0	0	0.125	0.214	0.083	0.164	-0.24
Total	505	16	62	60	0.294	0.363	0.424	0.351	-0.42

Source: fangraphs.com

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