Could Steroids Push Bernie Williams’ HoF Candidacy Over the Borderline?

Thirteen new candidates have been added to the 2012 Hall of Fame ballot, but none have overwhelming credentials, which should bode well for Barry Larkin, Tim Raines, and Jeff Bagwell, three eminently deserving players snubbed by last year’s voting. However, it seems as if one of the new eligible players is being written off much too quickly. That’s really nothing new for Bernie Williams, whose career would have never gotten started had he yielded to those who dismissed him.

Bernie Williams’ Hall of Fame campaign faces an uphill battle on two fronts because he appears like a borderline candidate to both the traditional and sabermetricly-inclined factions of the electorate. On the one hand, the older members of the BBWAA are likely to balk at Williams’ relatively deflated counting stats, while those voters in tune with the latest sabermetric trends might be swayed by his less than eye-popping WAR. Both first impressions are worthy of a second look.

Hall of Fame Centerfielders and Upcoming Candidates, Ranked by OPS+ (click to enlarge)

Note: Includes Hall of Famers who played at least 50% of total games in centerfield as well as Bernie Williams, Ken Griffey Jr., and Jim Edmonds.
Source: Baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com

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Survive then Conquer: A Look at the Yankees’ Performance in Sudden Death

On Tuesday, the Yankees were simply looking to survive. Tonight, they hope to conquer.

Thanks to the surprising performance of A.J. Burnett in game 4 of the division series, the Yankees escaped from Detroit with their World Series hopes intact and now face a sudden death playoff game for the first time since losing the 2005 ALDS to the Anaheim Angels.

Facing Sudden Death: Yankees’ History in Postseason Series Finales

Source: Baseball-reference.com

The Yankees have played in the most winner-take-all October showdowns, which shouldn’t be surprising considering the team’s playoff history encompasses 368 games to date. However, despite the franchise’s incomparable 48-22 record in all postseason series, the Bronx Bombers are only 11-10 when facing a mutual elimination. Of course, that speaks to how difficult it has been to knock the Yankees out in October. While fewer than one-fourth of their series wins have come gone to the wire, almost half of their loses have gone the distance.

Because the Yankees have played in almost 14% of all sudden death postseason games (21 of 152), many of the sport’s most dramatic October moments have involved the pinstripes (for a companion piece on sudden death games involving all teams, check out my latest post at Bronx Banter). In terms of WPA, five of the top-25 offensive performances in the history of deciding games have been recorded by Yankees. Perhaps the most famous such game is Chris Chambliss’ pennant winning homerun against the Kansas City Royals that sent the Yankees back to the World Series in 1976 for the first time in 12 years. Of course, younger fans of the Bronx Bombers are probably more partial to Aaron Boone’s long ball, which sealed the Red Sox fate in the 2003 ALCS. Either way, both moments not only rank among the most dramatic in Yankees’ history, but all of baseball lore.

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Yanks Hold Hit Parade Without Home Run; Outburst Recalls Bernie Williams’ Rookie Season

The Yankees rapped out 18 hits in yesterday’s 9-2 victory over the Indians, but not one wound up leaving the ballpark. It was only the 14th time all season that the Yankees failed to hit a home run, which should lighten the hearts of those overly concerned with the team’s “reliance” on the long ball.

The last time the Yankees recorded as many as 18 hits in the Bronx without sending one over the wall was the next to last game of the season in 1991 (there have been 14 occurrences since 1919). The opponent that day was also the Cleveland Indians, but this time the Tribe came out on the winning side, a paradox not uncommon for the Yankees in that era. During the game, every starter had a hit except third baseman Tory Lovullo, but the real standout was a rookie centerfielder named Bernie Williams.

Yankees’ Home Games with At Least 18 Hits and No Home Runs, Since 1919

Date	Opp	Rslt	H	LOB
6/12/2011	CLE	W 9-1	18	9
10/5/1991	CLE	L 5-7	19	18
7/20/1973	CHW	W 12-2	20	10
8/27/1972	KCR	W 9-8	26	18
8/3/1953	SLB	W 11-3	18	11
7/19/1950	SLB	W 16-1	21	13
9/14/1949	SLB	W 13-7	19	11
6/20/1939	CHW	W 13-3	19	11
6/22/1929	PHA	W 4-3	18	14
6/20/1925	CHW	W 12-2	22	10
7/18/1922	CHW	W 14-4	20	9
6/26/1920	BOS	W 14-0	18	7
8/28/1919	WSH	W 5-4	19	14

Note: Click on date for link to box score.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

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Never the Center of Attention, Jim Edmonds Deserves Serious Hall of Fame Consideration

Edmonds was best known for catches like this one against the Royals on June 10, 1997.

The official announcement of Jim Edmonds’ retirement on Friday went largely unnoticed, which was kind of fitting because that’s mostly how the All Star centerfielder’s 17-year career was treated. Edmonds has always been a player best known for either making highlight reel catches or coming down with a nagging injury (he only had four seasons with 150 or more games played), sometimes doing both on the same play. A closer look, however, reveals what Edmonds really was: a legitimate candidate for the Hall of Fame.

When most people think about Hall of Fame centerfielders, names like Ty Cobb, Willie Mays, Tris Speaker, Joe DiMaggio and Mickey Mantle come to mind. For that reason, it’s easy to understand why the immediate reaction to Edmonds’ candidacy would be dismissive. Once you get past that immortal quintet, however, Edmonds follows very closely behind, at least according to Sean Smith’s version of WAR.

Hall of Fame Centerfielders (and Upcoming Candidates), Ranked by WAR

Player	G	PA	WAR	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
Ty Cobb	3034	13068	159.4	117	1938	0.366	0.433	0.512	168
Willie Mays	2992	12493	154.7	660	1903	0.302	0.384	0.557	155
Tris Speaker	2789	11988	133	117	1529	0.345	0.428	0.500	157
Mickey Mantle	2401	9909	120.2	536	1509	0.298	0.421	0.557	172
Joe DiMaggio	1736	7671	83.6	361	1537	0.325	0.398	0.579	155
Ken Griffey Jr.	2671	11304	78.5	630	1836	0.284	0.370	0.538	135
Jim Edmonds	2011	7980	68.3	393	1199	0.284	0.376	0.527	132
Duke Snider	2143	8237	67.5	407	1333	0.295	0.380	0.540	140
Richie Ashburn	2189	9736	58	29	586	0.308	0.396	0.382	111
Max Carey	2476	10770	50.6	70	800	0.285	0.361	0.386	107
Larry Doby	1533	6302	47.4	253	970	0.283	0.386	0.490	136
Bernie Williams	2076	9053	47.3	287	1257	0.297	0.381	0.477	125
Edd Roush	1967	8156	46.5	68	981	0.323	0.369	0.446	127
Earl Averill	1669	7215	45	238	1164	0.318	0.395	0.534	133
Kirby Puckett	1783	7831	44.8	207	1085	0.318	0.360	0.477	124
Earle Combs	1455	6507	44.7	58	632	0.325	0.397	0.462	125
Hack Wilson	1348	5556	39.1	244	1063	0.307	0.395	0.545	144
Lloyd Waner	1993	8326	24.3	27	598	0.316	0.353	0.393	99

Note: Includes Hall of Famers who played at least 50% of total games in centerfield.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Despite being sabermetrically inclined, I still have my suspicions regarding both predominant versions of WAR. However, when any metric states a player ranks among the best at his position, it is wise to take notice. Using more traditional statistics, Edmonds would still rank among the top-10 Hall of Fame centerfielders in terms of OPS+, runs and RBIs, not to mention fourth in homeruns. By just about any measure, Edmonds was one of the best centerfielders to every play the game. But, is that enough to warrant election to the Hall of Fame?

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